The four components of the current inflationary push – Base Effects, Supply Chain problems, Service inflation, Wages – were reviewed in the June Macro Tides. If inflation is going to be transitory there should be visible progress on each of these components. Base Effects is merely a 12 month rate of change calculation so it doesn’t really provide much insight into actual progress in real time. The current year over year numbers are dependent on values from 12 months ago as much as current prices. The majority of price inputs recorded their Pandemic lows in the...
