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What Does Macro Tides Have To Offer You?

And how can you determine if Macro Tides will fit for your needs? It's easy, read my overview summary.

You'll be able to judge my analysis on monetary policy, inflation outlook as inflation began to soar, and how the Dollar, Stock Market, Treasury yields, and Gold were expected to trade.

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Jim Knows How to Read The Markets

Jim Welsh has accumulated many accolades during his career, including for his prescient analysis of both the 2007-2008 market crash and the 2009 bullish reversal. Very few were able to accomplish this. Read Jim's free report covering his thoughts from those years to get a better sense of his process:

Read Jim's Free Fundamental Recap Report

After the 2008 and 2009 crash I looked for sources who had recommended getting out of the market in 2007 and 2008 but who had then turned bullish in February or March of 2009. While there were lots of people warning of impending doom in 2007 and 2008, they were still warning of impending doom in 2009 and 2010. And while many were bullish in the Spring of 2009, they were bullish all through the crash as well. After my extensive research (I spent well over 150 hours retrieving and reading available publications) I found only three who met my criteria for roughly “getting it right”: Jeffrey Gundlach, Ned Davis, and Jim Welsh. Jim does a great job of blending fundamental and technical analysis and communicating in a way I can understand. He is able to read the Fed minutes and identify gaps between what the Fed is saying and how it is being interpreted by the market.

- Dave B., Independent advisor Large National Wealth Management Firm

Jim Welsh has published a monthly investment letter since 1985 that focuses on Federal Reserve monetary policy, the economy, and the financial markets. He has managed a mutual fund, worked for major wire-houses, and has been widely published in financial media. Jim was Forward Funds' ($5.5 billion) Macro Tactical strategist for a number of years, and provides high quality economic and technical market analysis for advisors and investors as a guide to portfolio allocation and tactical portfolio changes.

Welsh's Macro Tides models identify trend changes in the domestic & international equity markets, fixed income, currency (USD & Euro) and Gold markets. The Macro Tides models place a heavy focus on Monetary Policy, traditional Economic Indicators, including Welsh's proprietary Major Trend Indicator, and selected Sentiment Indicators to create trade recommendations.

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Inflection Points

By the end of July a number of markets were at inflection points. The Dollar was on the cusp of a big rally. Treasury yields were trending higher. The S&P 500 peaked on July 27 and then declined by more than 7%. Gold was in a down trend.

In the July 24 Weekly Technical Review I told subscribers to expect:

  1. A -5% to -7% decline in the S&P 500
  2. A rally of at least 4% in the Dollar
  3. The trend in Treasury yields was up
  4. Gold was expected to drop to $1822

Read the July 24, 2023
Weekly Technical Review

Jim Welsh in the Media

Listen to Jim share his thoughts with podcasts, publications, and media outlets. Gain a better understanding of how he integrates his fundamental and technical analysis, broad experience, and knowledge of the markets into developing valuable Macro Tides newsletters that can provide insight to your decision making.

Watch Jim's Interviews

Economic Outlook and Market Analysis

July 24, 2023

Jim Welsh provided a detailed analysis of the current state of inflation, predicting that it will continue to rise due to the reversal of energy prices and food prices. He also discussed the impact of higher interest rates on unemployment numbers and predicted that a recession is likely in the...

A Recession is coming. I will show you why.

July 22, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about key macro themes in the markets and gives you some evidence that he is looking at that suggests that a recession is near and why. He looks at the Lending Economic Indicator (LEI), Coincident Index, Lending Standards and...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Macro Factors and their impact on Monetary Policy, the Economy, and Financial Markets

Thank you for your interest in my analysis.

The cornerstone of my Tactical Strategy is the intersection of Economic Fundamentals, Monetary Policy, and Technical Analysis. The combination of these has helped me implement an effective Tactical Strategy that seeks to identify...

Are You Ready for the 10 Year Bear Market

May 17, 2023

Jim Welsh believes that the coming secular bear market has already begun and that it will be worse than the 1966-1982 period. He bases this on factors such as debt, demographics, and the risk of war. He believes that the economy will slow in the second half of 2021 and that the market will...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Tactical Strategy

The cornerstone of my Tactical Strategy is the intersection of Economic Fundamentals, Monetary Policy, and Technical Analysis. Combining fundamental and technical analysis has helped me implement an effective Tactical Strategy. This combination was particularly effective in 2022.

Below...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

A Secular 15 Year Bear Market Is Coming

Will You Be Ready?

The stock market rewards the Buy and Hold investment strategy during a Secular Bull Market as every cyclical bear market is followed by higher highs. The S&P 500 has repeatedly made a new all time high since the low in March 2009, despite a number of meaningful setbacks. Investors have...

Technical Review

Six Dominoes of Recession

Recessions are not random.

Stock values are determined by the level of interest rates and in large part by earnings. As earnings increase over time investors are often willing to pay a higher price for stocks during a bull market. This is why the Price / Earnings Ratio moves up until...

Technical Review

Markets Fail to Discount Forks in the Road

One of the most widely accepted axioms on Wall Street is that markets are a discounting mechanism. It implies that markets possess a form of collective wisdom and those who listen to the “ message of the market ” are “ smart ” investors.

Copper is reputed to have a Ph.D. in economics...

Global Economic Report

China Reverses Course

October 1, 2021

The British Empire lasted from 1550 to 1900 a great run of almost 350 years. France exerted a global influence that lasted for 270 years and ran from 1610 to 1880. The majority of other countries power lasted for a shorter durations. The United...

Global Economic Report

Inflationary Pressures Aren't Easing

August 1, 2021

The four components of the current inflationary push – Base Effects, Supply Chain problems, Service inflation, Wages – were reviewed in the June Macro Tides. If inflation is going to be transitory there should be visible progress on each of these components. Base...

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