About Jim Welsh
Jim Welsh is a student of the financial markets and a seasoned veteran of investing with forty years of portfolio management experience, including: security research & analysis, model building, portfolio construction, asset allocation, and is a specialist in technical analysis and macro-economics. Did we mention he is also an all-around good guy?
As nationally recognized financial expert Jim has been quoted in Barrons, the San Diego Union-Tribune, Consensus, the Big Picture, Econintersect, and Market Views. Mr. Welsh has been interviewed on Fox Business News and CNBC, CBS radio and given more than 3,000 interviews on TV, radio, and internet business shows since 1988.
An example of Welsh's impressive market calls includes the major sell-off in world markets in 2007. That year, Jim correctly anticipated the housing & credit crisis and predicted the bear market in stocks in 2008. In February 2009, just before the market bottomed and economic statistics improved, Welsh identified the signs of a turnaround in the stock market and economy. A Recap of this analysis from 2007 - 2009 is available. Learn More.
Why this Investment Approach is Different.
The Macro Tides holistic approach combines Monetary, Fundamental, Momentum, Major Trend Indicator, Market Breadth, Chart Analysis, Contrary Opinion, Positioning, and Sentiment to identify trend changes in various financial markets. This holistic approach is unique since most other mainstream fund managers rely almost exclusively on fundamental analysis and historical performance-based asset allocation models.
Our investment approach identifies trend changes in the following markets:
- U.S Equities
- Dollar & Euro Currency
- Emerging Markets
- U.S. Treasury (long/short)
- Gold & Gold Stocks
Historical trend changes are available on Resources.
Why Tactical? Valuations (Future Returns) vs. Buy & Hold
Current valuations in global equities and bonds imply that future investment returns are likely to be disappointing. The Buffet Valuation Indicator (the ratio of Equities to GDP) is near record highs and the expected average annual return for the S&P 500 in the next 10 years is now just 0.8%. This is not the only metric suggesting that the stock market may be vulnerable to a significant decline. As a result, there is a higher probability of prolonged poor returns across multiple investment asset classes.
The unwinding of excessively high valuations is often volatile and painful; frequently wrought with corrections of 20% or more. Macro Tides offers investors the opportunity to side-step deep corrections, monetize the market rebounds, and capitalize on falling prices using money market or inverse ETF funds.
A. Market Analysis
Major Trend Indicator (Signal Direction)
GOAL: To Determine when to be 'All In', 'All Out', or 'Short' the market (S&P 500)
Technical Indicator (Momentum)
GOAL: To 'Fine Tune' the trading ranges (opportunities), or 'Reduce Exposure'
- Technical Analysis
- Sentiment Indicators
Economic Indicator (Drawdown Measure)
GOAL: To determine the 'Severity of Correction' or potential 'Advancement'
- Market Valuation (Fundamental)
- Asset Class Analysis
B. Security Selection
GOAL: To Determine which sectors are the 'Most Attractive'
- Rank Sector (Momentum)
- Security Selection
During a bull market an email or text will be sent to you on the last day or the day after the end of each quarter indicating which sector ETF should be sold or purchased, or if no change is warranted.
When the Major Trend Indicator signals that a bear market has likely begun, an email or text will be sent notifying you to liquidate the long positions in the U.S. Tactical Sector Rotation Strategy and the Global Tactical Sector Rotation Strategy. Every effort is made to send the email or text on the day of the MTI signal but a surge in volatility near the end of a trading day may delay the email or text until the following morning. This enables you to make timely changes and better manage your investment risk.
Bear Market Rally
When the Major Trend Indicator crosses above its moving average during a bear market, an email or text will be sent notifying you either on the day of the signal or the following morning to 1) sell any position in the short the S&P 500 or Russell 2000 ETF, 2) notify you which ETFs to purchase that are in the top five in the performance rankings.
Bull Market Confirmed
If the bear market rally is strong enough to confirm that a bull market has likely begun, an email or text will be sent on the day of the signal or the following morning notifying you to continue holding the top five performing purchased when the Bear Market Rally signal was generated. During a bull market an email or text will be sent to you on the last day or the day after the end of each quarter indicating which sector ETF should be sold or purchased, or if no change is warranted.
Failed Bear Market Rally
If the bear market rally fails to confirm a new bull market, and the Major Trend Indicator subsequently closes below its moving average, an email or text will be sent on the day of the signal or the following morning notifying you to 1) liquidate the long positions in the U.S. Tactical Sector Rotation Strategy and the Global Tactical Sector Rotation Strategy. 2) We will notify you which inverse ETF to buy. You will decide how much to invest in an inverse S&P 500 or Russell 2000 ETF or whether to move into a Money Market fund.
You Decide Money Market Fund, or Inverse S&P 500 or Russell 2000 ETF
We will notify you which inverse ETF to buy. You will decide how much to invest in an inverse S&P 500 or Russell 2000 ETF or whether to move into a Money Market fund.