Technical Review

Higher Treasury Yields in the First Quarter

The stock market is extremely overbought which develops when a bullish narrative is widely embraced. As I’ve noted Wall Street expects the economy to avoid a recession in 2024, earnings will be up 12%, and the FOMC will be aggressively cutting the Funds rate 6 times. It doesn’t get any better than that. With such a bullish storyline selling pressure has remained low as expected. The first dip in 2024 will be bought so the S&P 500 is expected to rally above 4818. The S&P 500 may drop below 4697 before the rally above 4818 begins....

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