Technical Review

Waiting for the Economic Slowdown

At the end of December the Federal Funds rate futures pegged the odds of a rate cut at the March FOMC meeting at 90%. Last week the odds the FOMC would lower the Funds rate in March was less than 20%. In January Wall Street was projecting the FOMC would lower the Funds rate 7 times in 2024 with the first cut arriving at the March 20 meeting. With the March cut eliminated Wall Street has been forced to dial back its expectation for the FOMC to lower the Funds rate at each of the 6 remaining meetings with a cut of 0.50% included at one future meeting....

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