I thought the FOMC would lower the Funds rate by 0.25% at the December 18 meeting and might indicate less than 3 cuts in 2025. “Despite the inflation data the FOMC will lower the Funds rate by 0.25% at the December 18 meeting, after what will likely be a spirited debate. I think the Hawks and Doves will compromise with the Hawks agreeing to a 0.25% cut and the Doves agreeing to no cut at the January 31 and possibly the March 20 meeting, depending on the data. Real clues from the internal debate will emerge in the new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The focus will be on whether the...
