Technical Review

CPI and Hints of Tariff Inflation

The financial markets breathed a sigh of relief after the June Headline and Core Consumer Price Indexes came in OK, although the cushion was razor thin. In last week’s WTR I reviewed how much the monthly increase for June would have to increase to lift the Headline CPI to levels that would grab market’s attention. “ The actual number in May was 2.35% before it was rounded up to 2.4%. In order for the Headline CPI to increase to 2.7%, the monthly increase for June 2025 will have to be 0.30% or higher. If the monthly increase for June is 0.29% the annual increase will be 2.64% and rounded...

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