When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the dislocation to the global oil market was about 3 million barrels a day, and West Texas Intermediate spiked to $122 a barrel. The current disruption is more than 10 million barrels a day, but the high so far has been $119 a barrel. The potential for a much larger spike in oil prices exists, as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. In the March 23 Weekly Technical Review, I discussed Iran’s goals. “ Iran has been working to develop a nuclear weapon for two decades that would instantly alter the balance of power in the Middle East....
