Macro-Economics

Global Economic Report

Labor Market Trends

April 1, 2024

The evolution of rate cut enthusiasm in 2024 is an example of investors anticipating what will happen only to be proven wrong. The irony is that professionals on Wall Street frequently cite the Federal Funds rate futures as a basis for their outlook for monetary...

Technical Review

Key Reversals in Key Stocks and Market Averages

March 11, 2024

In last week’s WTR I reviewed a number of economic reports which showed a softening in the economy, CNN’s Fear & Greed index showing investment sentiment had entered the Extreme Greed Zone, and Warren Buffet’s view that “ markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when...

Global Economic Report

Peak Optimism?

March 4, 2024

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for the first quarter GDP is for the economy to grow by 2.1%, so no sign of a real slowdown yet, and Wall Street expects earnings to be up by 15% by the first quarter of 2025. Wall Street has adjusted to the new reality that the FOMC won...

Global Economic Report

The Longer Term View

February 1, 2024

Tracking the paths created by financial markets is a different form of hunting. Most investors rely on economic data to determine whether it’s a good time to invest or not. They follow economic data as if data were Tea Leaves providing...

Technical Review

Two Faces of the Economy and Stocks

January 23, 2024

In November consumer borrowing zoomed by $23.75 billion boosted by an increase of $19.5 billion in spending on credit cards. In records going back to 1943 November was the third highest increase ever. The surge in consumer spending continued in December as the monthly increase in Retail Sales...

Global Economic Report

Optimism Is High

January 3, 2024

Heading into 2024 Wall Street and most investors are positive about the economy and the outlook for stock prices. Inflation is expected to decline as consumer spending holds up. The drop in inflation will allow the FOMC to lower the Funds rate as economic growth...

Global Economic Report

Monetary Policy in 2024

December 11, 2023

Wall Street is forecasting that GDP will slow in the first half of 2024 with growth averaging 0.35%, so a recession will be avoided. Wall Street expects the FOMC to cut the Funds rate by 0.25% in March and 4 more times by the end of 2024. The FOMC...

Technical Review

The Difference between Hearing and Listening

December 5, 2023

Frequently the words hearing and listening are used interchangeably as if they are basically the same which isn’t accurate. Hearing is a passive, involuntary, sensory process in which our minds perceive words because our ears are functioning. Listening is an active, voluntary, and intentional...

Technical Review

Demand for Loans Is Weak

November 13, 2023

The Federal Reserve released the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) last week and the results were interesting. The percentage of banks increasing their Lending Standards fell from 50.8% for the second quarter to 33.9% for the third quarter. On the surface the drop in the number of...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Secular Bear Market in Treasury Bonds

November 3, 2023

Consumer Price (CPI) inflation peaked in 1981 and then trended lower for 40 years, and after 1997, Core Consumer inflation held below 2.5%. In April 2021 inflation broke out of this 24 year base with the headline CPI pushing above 4.0% and the...

A Recession is Coming. Aggressive FOMC and Lending Tells the Story.

October 6, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about the markets ahead of the key NFP non-farm payroll jobs report tomorrow. He discusses the recession risks and how they are growing with tight lending standards and an aggressive Fed hike campaign.

Jim also covers the...

Wall Street Finally Getting the FOMC’s Message?

September 23, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks the very wild central bank meeting week the markets had, but most importantly how the market may finally be starting to understand the messaging that they have been trying to get across for months. Jim illustrates that between the “...

CPI to come in HOT next week!

September 9, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about the market ahead of the CPI and FOMC the next couple weeks. Jim will be out on holiday and wanted to give you a good update ahead of these two key events and the roadmap to what you might expect.

He shows and walks...

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