Macro-Economics

Technical Review

Lower Inflation Spurs Rotation

July 17, 2024

In June the Headline CPI declined by -0.1% led by declines in Gasoline (-3.9%), Oil (-3.8%), Airline Fares (-5.7%), and a moderation in Shelter inflation from an increase of 0.4% in May to 0.2% in June. The decline in Shelter inflation brought monthly Core down to 0.1% from 0.2% in June. On a...

Technical Review

Softness in Services and Labor Market

July 9, 2024

Services comprise 80% of GDP so changes in the level of growth in services will determine when and how much the economy slows. One month doesn’t make a trend but it can offer a clue. In June the ISM Services Index declined from 53.8 in May to 48.8 in June a rather large drop in one month....

Global Economic Report

Heightened Risk = Caution

June 30, 2024

The expert and you are in a car and the expert is driving. After awhile, you notice that the expert is driving the car by looking through the rearview mirror. Concerned you ask him why he’s not looking ahead as he drives. He replies...

Global Economic Report

Be Careful What You Wish For

June 3, 2024

Wall Street has been obsessed with guessing when the FOMC will lower the Funds rate for the first time and the number of times in 2024. It’s been an instructive process. In December many on Wall Street forecast the FOMC would make the first rate cut at the March...

Technical Review

Data Has Delivered Negative Surprises

May 14, 2024

Wall Street is convinced that the economy will strengthen in the second half of 2024 and enable earnings to grow by more than 10% in 2024. The increase in confidence is doubling interesting since recent data has consistently been weaker than forecast.

The Citi Economic Surprise Index (...

Global Economic Report

Rate Cuts in 2024 Postponed

May 1, 2024

In the April Macro Tides I reviewed previous statements Chair Powell had made in speeches and during his post FOMC meeting press conferences and highlighted the emphasis he placed on the importance of confidence. “In speeches, testimony before Congress,...

Technical Review

Job Growth Eclipses and Dims Rate Cut Optimism

April 9, 2024

The Labor Department reported an increase of 303,000 jobs in March which was well above the Wall Street’s estimate of 200,000. Other aspects of the report were improved with the average work week ticking up to 34.4 hours from 34.3, and the Unemployment Rate falling to 3.8% from 3.9% in February...

Global Economic Report

Labor Market Trends

April 1, 2024

The evolution of rate cut enthusiasm in 2024 is an example of investors anticipating what will happen only to be proven wrong. The irony is that professionals on Wall Street frequently cite the Federal Funds rate futures as a basis for their outlook for monetary...

Technical Review

Key Reversals in Key Stocks and Market Averages

March 11, 2024

In last week’s WTR I reviewed a number of economic reports which showed a softening in the economy, CNN’s Fear & Greed index showing investment sentiment had entered the Extreme Greed Zone, and Warren Buffet’s view that “ markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when...

Global Economic Report

Peak Optimism?

March 4, 2024

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for the first quarter GDP is for the economy to grow by 2.1%, so no sign of a real slowdown yet, and Wall Street expects earnings to be up by 15% by the first quarter of 2025. Wall Street has adjusted to the new reality that the FOMC won...

Global Economic Report

The Longer Term View

February 1, 2024

Tracking the paths created by financial markets is a different form of hunting. Most investors rely on economic data to determine whether it’s a good time to invest or not. They follow economic data as if data were Tea Leaves providing...

Technical Review

Two Faces of the Economy and Stocks

January 23, 2024

In November consumer borrowing zoomed by $23.75 billion boosted by an increase of $19.5 billion in spending on credit cards. In records going back to 1943 November was the third highest increase ever. The surge in consumer spending continued in December as the monthly increase in Retail Sales...

Global Economic Report

Optimism Is High

January 3, 2024

Heading into 2024 Wall Street and most investors are positive about the economy and the outlook for stock prices. Inflation is expected to decline as consumer spending holds up. The drop in inflation will allow the FOMC to lower the Funds rate as economic growth...

Global Economic Report

Monetary Policy in 2024

December 11, 2023

Wall Street is forecasting that GDP will slow in the first half of 2024 with growth averaging 0.35%, so a recession will be avoided. Wall Street expects the FOMC to cut the Funds rate by 0.25% in March and 4 more times by the end of 2024. The FOMC...

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