Technical Review

Demand for Loans Is Weak

November 13, 2023

The Federal Reserve released the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) last week and the results were interesting. The percentage of banks increasing their Lending Standards fell from 50.8% for the second quarter to 33.9% for the third quarter. On the surface the drop in the number of...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Secular Bear Market in Treasury Bonds

November 3, 2023

Consumer Price (CPI) inflation peaked in 1981 and then trended lower for 40 years, and after 1997, Core Consumer inflation held below 2.5%. In April 2021 inflation broke out of this 24 year base with the headline CPI pushing above 4.0% and the...

A Recession is Coming. Aggressive FOMC and Lending Tells the Story.

October 6, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about the markets ahead of the key NFP non-farm payroll jobs report tomorrow. He discusses the recession risks and how they are growing with tight lending standards and an aggressive Fed hike campaign.

Jim also covers the...

Wall Street Finally Getting the FOMC’s Message?

September 23, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks the very wild central bank meeting week the markets had, but most importantly how the market may finally be starting to understand the messaging that they have been trying to get across for months. Jim illustrates that between the “...

CPI to come in HOT next week!

September 9, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about the market ahead of the CPI and FOMC the next couple weeks. Jim will be out on holiday and wanted to give you a good update ahead of these two key events and the roadmap to what you might expect.

He shows and walks...

Technical Review

Powell and the FOMC Will Hold the Line

July 24, 2023

The FOMC will increase the Funds rate at their July 26 meeting by 0.25% to 5.25% - 5.50%. Chair Powell will do his best to convey that every meeting will be a ‘live’ meeting and that the FOMC hasn’t adopted an every other meeting increase format. He will emphasize that the FOMC remains data...

Economic Outlook and Market Analysis

July 24, 2023

Jim Welsh provided a detailed analysis of the current state of inflation, predicting that it will continue to rise due to the reversal of energy prices and food prices. He also discussed the impact of higher interest rates on unemployment numbers and predicted that a recession is likely in the...

A Recession is coming. I will show you why.

July 22, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about key macro themes in the markets and gives you some evidence that he is looking at that suggests that a recession is near and why. He looks at the Lending Economic Indicator (LEI), Coincident Index, Lending Standards and...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Macro Factors and their impact on Monetary Policy, the Economy, and Financial Markets

Thank you for your interest in my analysis.

The cornerstone of my Tactical Strategy is the intersection of Economic Fundamentals, Monetary Policy, and Technical Analysis. The combination of these has helped me implement an effective Tactical Strategy that seeks to identify...

Are You Ready for the 10 Year Bear Market

May 17, 2023

Jim Welsh believes that the coming secular bear market has already begun and that it will be worse than the 1966-1982 period. He bases this on factors such as debt, demographics, and the risk of war. He believes that the economy will slow in the second half of 2021 and that the market will...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

A Secular 15 Year Bear Market Is Coming

Will You Be Ready?

The stock market rewards the Buy and Hold investment strategy during a Secular Bull Market as every cyclical bear market is followed by higher highs. The S&P 500 has repeatedly made a new all time high since the low in March 2009, despite a number of meaningful setbacks. Investors have...

Technical Review

Six Dominoes of Recession

Recessions are not random.

Stock values are determined by the level of interest rates and in large part by earnings. As earnings increase over time investors are often willing to pay a higher price for stocks during a bull market. This is why the Price / Earnings Ratio moves up until...

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