Technical Analysis

Bifurcation is inherently unstable since it creates a tension between sections of a whole and by definition shows that everyone isn’t pulling in the same direction. It’s difficult to solve challenging and complex problems even when everyone is seeking a common solution,...

On December 1 a Governor for the Bank of Japan indicated that the BOJ would likely increase their policy rate at the next meeting on December 19. Inflation has been consistently above the BOJ’s 2% target, with the Headline CPI at 3.0% in November and the Core CPI at 3.1%. On November 20 Japan’s...

The S&P 500 topped on October 29 and then pulled back as expectations for another rate cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting dimmed. In his statement before the press conference after the October 29 FOMC meeting, Chair Powell threw cold water on the prospects of a rate cut at the December...

The Great Pyramid of Giza took about 26 years to build and was completed in 2560 BC, give or take a few years. It was 481 feet tall, the base was 756 feet, and was constructed with 2.3 million blocks of limestone with some of them weighing 70 tons. The Great Pyramid of Giza is the oldest of the...

On Sunday 8 Democrats voted with 52 Republicans to move forward and presumably end the longest government shutdown in history. The vote on November 9 came after 14 previous attempts failed. Five additional Democrats agreed to join the three Dems who had voted yes in the prior 14 votes. The...

As expected, the FOMC voted to end its Quantitative Tightening program on December 1, so it will no longer allow $5 billion of Treasury debt a month roll off. The FOMC did vote to continue allowing $35 billion a month of Mortgage-Backed-Securities (MBS) to roll off. The $35 billion will be...

At one time the phrase “ A watched pot never boils” meant time seems to pass more slowly when one is waiting for something to happen. The time waiting also allows expectations to grow and I remember when the event I had been waiting for finally...

The FOMC will lower the Funds rate by 0.25% when the FOMC meets on Wednesday October 29, which won’t be a surprise to anyone. Financial markets will react positively if the FOMC announces they will be ending their Quantitative Tightening program since this move represents another easing of...

Rare earths are critical minerals used to manufacture magnets, which are key inputs for electric vehicles, the semiconductor industry, and the US military. Rare earths are crucial for various...

In recent weeks the S&P 500 managed to grind higher despite increasing signs of underlying weakness, as measured by the 21-day Advances – Declines Oscillator. On September 15 the S&P 500 closed at 6615 and on October 9 traded up to 6764, an increase of 2.25%. On Friday 3 weeks of gains...

The government shutdown and the suspension of long-standing economic reports is occurring at a potential inflection point in the current business cycle. The Federal Reserve needs to know if the labor market is stabilizing or weakening further and whether inflation is rising more than expected,...

After each FOMC member expresses their assessment of the economy, inflation, the labor market, and the appropriate level for the Funds rate during a FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chairs have attempted to build a consensus. During Ben Bernanke’s term as Chair (February 1, 2006...

Chair Powell noted that there is a real split within the FOMC. “We have 10 participants out of 19 who wrote down two or more cuts for the remainder of the year and nine who wrote down fewer than two cuts.” Based on the projections in the SEP, there is one group (9) who is more worried about...

In his Jackson Hole speech in August 2023 Chair Powell said, “ We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies ". During Chair Powell’s press conference after the September 17 FOMC meeting he said, “ Right now is a particularly challenging time, even more uncertain than usual.” As Chair...

FOMC members will discuss at length the labor market and attempt to access its strength and whether recent reports elevate downside risks to job growth and higher unemployment. They will have a lot to discuss since most the of the recent data have shown softening of demand and hiring. The Ratio...

In his Jackson Hole speech Chair Powell noted the unusual nature of the current balance in the labor market and his concern that the balance could unwind quickly. “ Overall, while the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in...

Federal Reserve Governors vote at every FOMC meeting as does the President of the New York Federal Reserve. Being a Governor carries more weight in affecting policy changes than being one of the other 11 Federal Reserve district presidents. Four of the 11 district...