Technical Analysis

Technical Review

The Difference between Hearing and Listening

December 5, 2023

Frequently the words hearing and listening are used interchangeably as if they are basically the same which isn’t accurate. Hearing is a passive, involuntary, sensory process in which our minds perceive words because our ears are functioning. Listening is an active, voluntary, and intentional...

Technical Review

The FOMC and Financial Conditions

November 28, 2023

In his opening statement after the FOMC meeting on November 1 Chair Powell discussed Financial Conditions specifically. “ Financial conditions have tightened significantly in recent months, driven by higher longer-term bond yields, among other factors. Because persistent...

Technical Review

Demand for Loans Is Weak

November 13, 2023

The Federal Reserve released the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) last week and the results were interesting. The percentage of banks increasing their Lending Standards fell from 50.8% for the second quarter to 33.9% for the third quarter. On the surface the drop in the number of...

Technical Review

Goldilocks Data Spurs Amnesia

November 6, 2023

The economic data last week can be summarized as follows - Softer data, but not too weak to question the No Recession narrative. Chair Powell’s press conference went as I expected. He reiterated the same points he has for more than a year. The FOMC will continue until they are confident that...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Secular Bear Market in Treasury Bonds

November 3, 2023

Consumer Price (CPI) inflation peaked in 1981 and then trended lower for 40 years, and after 1997, Core Consumer inflation held below 2.5%. In April 2021 inflation broke out of this 24 year base with the headline CPI pushing above 4.0% and the...

Technical Review

No FOMC Rate Hike, but Hawkish Bias

November 1, 2023

I thought the GDP report would make the economy looks stronger than it really is and it did. GDP grew 4.9% in the third quarter according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s first estimate. The increase was led by an increase of 4.0% in consumer spending that contributed 2.69% of the total. As...

Technical Review

Special Update

October 23, 2023

As discussed in the Weekly Technical Review in recent weeks, TLT was approaching the end of a 5 Wave decline from its peak in March 2020 at 179.70. There is a chance that TLT could drop below 80.00 in response to the third quarter GDP report showing the economy growing at 3.5...

A Recession is Coming. Aggressive FOMC and Lending Tells the Story.

October 6, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about the markets ahead of the key NFP non-farm payroll jobs report tomorrow. He discusses the recession risks and how they are growing with tight lending standards and an aggressive Fed hike campaign.

Jim also covers the...

CPI to come in HOT next week!

September 9, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about the market ahead of the CPI and FOMC the next couple weeks. Jim will be out on holiday and wanted to give you a good update ahead of these two key events and the roadmap to what you might expect.

He shows and walks...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Macro Factors and their impact on Monetary Policy, the Economy, and Financial Markets

Thank you for your interest in my analysis.

The cornerstone of my Tactical Strategy is the intersection of Economic Fundamentals, Monetary Policy, and Technical Analysis. The combination of these has helped me implement an effective Tactical Strategy that seeks to identify...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Tactical Strategy

The cornerstone of my Tactical Strategy is the intersection of Economic Fundamentals, Monetary Policy, and Technical Analysis. Combining fundamental and technical analysis has helped me implement an effective Tactical Strategy. This combination was particularly effective in 2022.

Below...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

A Secular 15 Year Bear Market Is Coming

Will You Be Ready?

The stock market rewards the Buy and Hold investment strategy during a Secular Bull Market as every cyclical bear market is followed by higher highs. The S&P 500 has repeatedly made a new all time high since the low in March 2009, despite a number of meaningful setbacks. Investors have...

Technical Review

Six Dominoes of Recession

Recessions are not random.

Stock values are determined by the level of interest rates and in large part by earnings. As earnings increase over time investors are often willing to pay a higher price for stocks during a bull market. This is why the Price / Earnings Ratio moves up until...

Global Economic Report

Recap 2007-2010

The following is a recap of the stock market analysis I provided in my monthly investment letter “Macro Tides” from early 2007 to April 8, 2010. My approach combines both fundamental analysis and technical analysis, which is unusual. Most economists and market strategists rely almost...

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