Weekly Technical Reviews

In the last two years investors weren’t presented with many reasons to sell and were conditioned to buy every dip no matter how shallow. Along the way there were a few bumps – regional bank upset in March 2023, correction in the summer of 2023, and the Japanese Yen shakeout in August 2024....

There have been a number of economic reports in the last two weeks that have been weaker than expected creating a growth scare. Retail Sales in January fell -0.9% which was much weaker than the forecast dip of -0.2%. This raised concerns that consumer spending was starting to falter. The S&...

Every day brings a new Executive Order and actions taken by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to fire government workers or shutter entire departments. Whether some of the decisions by DOGE are legal will be decided by the courts. The threat of tariffs will likely become reality on...

The title of the January 21 Weekly Technical Review was “ President Trump Won’t Be a Bull in a China Shop .” I’ve changed my mind as noted in last week’s WTR. “ President Trump may be more serious about increasing the revenue from tariffs than Wall Street realizes. Wall Street thinks President...

As promised President Trump levied tariffs on Canada and Mexico on February 1. The stock market started getting concerned on January 31 and the S&P 500 fell from 6121 to a low just after the market opened on February 3 of 5924. On Monday February 3 Canada and Mexico offered concessions that...

I’m not a fan of using tariffs as a blunt instrument or protectionism.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that free trade after 1950 cumulatively boosted the U.S. economy by $2.6 trillion, or $19,500 a household. A 2021 study by Oxford Economics and the U.S.-...

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) offered a glint of positive news and the markets rejoiced. The Annual increase in the Core CPI dipped from 3.3% to 3.2% which was enough to alleviate the building concern the FOMC might actually increase the Funds rate in 2025, rather than lower it as noted last...

On January 10 the Labor Department reported that 256,000 jobs were created in December and the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. Wage growth eased from 4.0% to 3.9%. Overall the December report was solid, but not without a statistical blemish. The Seasonal adjustment...

The 59 th Super Bowl will be played on February 9 and the build up to the game will be outrageous. According to NBC roughly 62.5 million around the world watched the last Super Bowl. For many viewers of the Super Bowl the hype is more often greater than the actual game. In fact, of the prior 58...

I thought the FOMC would lower the Funds rate by 0.25% at the December 18 meeting and might indicate less than 3 cuts in 2025. “Despite the inflation data the FOMC will lower the Funds rate by 0.25% at the December 18 meeting, after what will likely be a spirited debate. I think the Hawks and...