Weekly Technical Reviews

Federal Reserve Governors vote at every FOMC meeting as does the President of the New York Federal Reserve. Being a Governor carries more weight in affecting policy changes than being one of the other 11 Federal Reserve district presidents. Four of the 11 district presidents rotate every year...

The FOMC voted to keep the Funds rate unchanged and as I thought possible two FOMC members who thought a rate cut was appropriate dissented. This is the first time there was two dissenting votes since 1993. The rarity of dissent increased the perception that the FOMC will lower the Funds rate...

The FOMC will announce its decision on the Funds rate on Wednesday and Chair Powell will host another press conference. This meeting holds the promise of drama given President Trump’s non-stop criticism of Chair Powell. Wall Street will parse every word and intonation that Chair Powell says....

The financial markets breathed a sigh of relief after the June Headline and Core Consumer Price Indexes came in OK, although the cushion was razor thin. In last week’s WTR I reviewed how much the monthly increase for June would have to increase to lift the Headline CPI to levels that would grab...

Sometimes more can be learned by how markets respond to an economic report than the actual data in the report. Most investors have become quite sanguine about inflation after the April and May CPI reports were tame. The Headline CPI increased by 0.22% in April and just 0.08% in May. Broadly...

The Labor Department reported that 147,000 jobs were created in June and the Unemployment Rate dipped from 4.2% to 4.1% as fewer people looked for work. Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.2% in June and the annual gain in wage growth slowed to 3.7%, while the Average Work Week ticked down...

President Trump has become more abrasive in his comments about Fed Chair Jay Powell, as his post last week illustrates. “ He’s a stupid person— stubborn mule…I've instructed my people not to do any debt beyond nine months or so. Get this guy out.. if I think somebody's going to keep the rates...

With fewer meetings left in 2025 to lower the Funds rate I thought more FOMC members would project 1 less cut in 2025. “ When the FOMC met in March there were 6 future meetings that would allow the FOMC the lower the Funds rate, but there are only 4 meetings left after the June meeting. This...

The Consumer Prices Index for May came in lower than economists had forecast. I thought the monthly increase in the CPI would be held down by declines in gas prices and airline fares. “ In May, some of the tariff inflation may be offset by a drop in gas prices nationwide and airline prices and...

Most consumers don’t know how Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is calculated and are thus vulnerable to headlines. As discussed in the April Macro Tides, GDP was artificially lowered after consumers and businesses rushed to buy goods produced overseas to beat the higher prices expected from tariffs...