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What Does Macro Tides Have To Offer You?

And how can you determine if Macro Tides will fit for your needs? It's easy, read my overview summary.

You'll be able to judge my analysis on monetary policy, inflation outlook as inflation began to soar, and how the Dollar, Stock Market, Treasury yields, and Gold were expected to trade.

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Jim Knows How to Read The Markets

Jim Welsh has accumulated many accolades during his career, including for his prescient analysis of both the 2007-2008 market crash and the 2009 bullish reversal. Very few were able to accomplish this. Read Jim's free report covering his thoughts from those years to get a better sense of his process:

Read Jim's Free Fundamental Recap Report

After the 2008 and 2009 crash I looked for sources who had recommended getting out of the market in 2007 and 2008 but who had then turned bullish in February or March of 2009. While there were lots of people warning of impending doom in 2007 and 2008, they were still warning of impending doom in 2009 and 2010. And while many were bullish in the Spring of 2009, they were bullish all through the crash as well. After my extensive research (I spent well over 150 hours retrieving and reading available publications) I found only three who met my criteria for roughly “getting it right”: Jeffrey Gundlach, Ned Davis, and Jim Welsh. Jim does a great job of blending fundamental and technical analysis and communicating in a way I can understand. He is able to read the Fed minutes and identify gaps between what the Fed is saying and how it is being interpreted by the market.

- Dave B., Independent advisor Large National Wealth Management Firm

Jim Welsh has published a monthly investment letter since 1985 that focuses on Federal Reserve monetary policy, the economy, and the financial markets. He has managed a mutual fund, worked for major wire-houses, and has been widely published in financial media. Jim was Forward Funds' ($5.5 billion) Macro Tactical strategist for a number of years, and provides high quality economic and technical market analysis for advisors and investors as a guide to portfolio allocation and tactical portfolio changes.

Welsh's Macro Tides models identify trend changes in the domestic & international equity markets, fixed income, currency (USD & Euro) and Gold markets. The Macro Tides models place a heavy focus on Monetary Policy, traditional Economic Indicators, including Welsh's proprietary Major Trend Indicator, and selected Sentiment Indicators to create trade recommendations.

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Inflection Points

By the end of July a number of markets were at inflection points. The Dollar was on the cusp of a big rally. Treasury yields were trending higher. The S&P 500 peaked on July 27 and then declined by more than 7%. Gold was in a down trend.

In the July 24 Weekly Technical Review I told subscribers to expect:

  1. A -5% to -7% decline in the S&P 500
  2. A rally of at least 4% in the Dollar
  3. The trend in Treasury yields was up
  4. Gold was expected to drop to $1822

Read the July 24, 2023
Weekly Technical Review

Jim Welsh in the Media

Listen to Jim share his thoughts with podcasts, publications, and media outlets. Gain a better understanding of how he integrates his fundamental and technical analysis, broad experience, and knowledge of the markets into developing valuable Macro Tides newsletters that can provide insight to your decision making.

Watch Jim's Interviews

Technical Review

Cloudy Economic Data

Technical Review

Questioning the Fed’s Independence

Financial markets have been roiled since President Trump started the Trade War with almost every country in the world. After Chair Powell spoke to the Economics Club of Chicago on April 16, President Trump lashed out in his normal reserved manner. President Trump must know that inflation will...

Technical Review

Shifting Tariffs = Volatility

On April 9 President Trump rolled back the excessive reciprocal tariffs and the S&P 500 rallied 9.1%. Over the weekend President Trump removed the tariffs on smart phones, computers and electronics. On Sunday President Trump said there would be tariffs on these products but in a different...

Technical Review

Special Report - President Trump Provides Tariff Relief

At 1:18 pm est. President Trump announced that he was authorizing a 90 day PAUSE to allow for negotiations with the 75 countries that have not responded with any retaliation in response to the Reciprocal Tariffs President Trump implemented. At the time of the announcement the S&P 500 was...

Technical Review

It Ain’t Over ‘til it’s Over

Based on 2023 data the average tariff levied on US Goods was 4.6% compared to the average tariff the US charged our trading partners of 2.2%. The expectation was that President Trump would increase the US tariff modestly above the 4.6% rate charged by other countries on US exports. Instead, the...

Global Economic Report

Tariff Behavior

After the election the prospect of tariffs resulted in changes in behavior by businesses and consumers. Those companies directly impacted by the coming higher cost of goods from tariffs responded by buying goods they would need later, but decided to make...

Technical Review

Liberation Day or Tariff-ied

President Trump has declared April 2 to be Liberation Day. “ This is the beginning of Liberation Day in America. We’re going to charge countries for doing business in our country and taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a lot of things that they’ve been taking over the years. They’ve...

Technical Review

FOMC – More Inflation, Less Growth

The FOMC met last week and made no meaningful changes and Chair Powell in his opening statement emphasized that uncertainty is driving monetary policy. “ The new administration is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas—trade, immigration, fiscal policy...

Technical Review

Bracing for a Slowdown

As expected, investors in the last 4 weeks have realized that President Trump is serious about broadly applying tariffs, which have the potential to lift inflation and hurt consumers that are already struggling with the high cost of living. According to Bloomberg, articles that have included...

Technical Review

Persistent Uncertainty

In the last two years investors weren’t presented with many reasons to sell and were conditioned to buy every dip no matter how shallow. Along the way there were a few bumps – regional bank upset in March 2023, correction in the summer of 2023, and the Japanese Yen shakeout in August 2024....

Technical Review

Economic Growth Scare

There have been a number of economic reports in the last two weeks that have been weaker than expected creating a growth scare. Retail Sales in January fell -0.9% which was much weaker than the forecast dip of -0.2%. This raised concerns that consumer spending was starting to falter. The S&...

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