Financial markets responded aggressively to the announcement of a two-week ceasefire. Clearly, the stock market believes that negotiations will result in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Is that optimism warranted? Iran published what it needs to end the war.

President Trump extended his 10 day deadline from April 6 to April 7 at 8 pm. Reports circulated that an attempt to adopt a 45 day cease fire are in the works. Iran has indicated that it won’t give up control of the Strait of Hormuz or release it’s 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium. I can’t...

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the dislocation to the global oil market was about 3 million barrels a day, and West Texas Intermediate spiked to $122 a barrel. The current disruption is more than 10 million barrels a day, but the high so far has been $119 a barrel. The potential...

On Saturday March 21, President Trump said that unless Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels within the next 48 hours, the US would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants. Within hours the Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf posted on X that if Iran's power plants and...

With the FOMC convening on March 18, Wall Street would normally be focused on Chair Powell’s press conference, the Summary of Economic Projections, and the Dot Plot. The December 2025 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed that the Median projection for GDP was increased from 1.7% in...

The duration of the war with Iran will impact how much oil and gas prices lift inflation and weigh on GDP growth in the US and other countries who rely on oil and natural gas to power their economies. The flow of oil and gas can be disrupted by Iranian missile and drone attacks that destroy...

The Federal Reserve released the minutes from the January 28 FOMC meeting on February 18 and they were revealing. The minutes reaffirmed my view that there are 3 groups within the FOMC and the lines between them are entrenched, unless incoming data...

In July 2015, the USA, UK, France, China, Russia, plus Germany agreed to the Iran Nuclear Deal formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran. The purpose of the deal was to ensure Iran wouldn’t be able to develop a nuclear weapon by capping uranium enrichment. The...

The Supreme Court ruled that the executive branch of government doesn’t have the power to levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which was passed in 1977. The Act authorizes the Executive Branch (president) to use the law “ to deal with any unusual and...

The next FOMC meeting is on March 18 and every economic report should be evaluated on whether it increases the odds of a rate cut or maintaining the status quo. As discussed in the February Macro Tides, there are three groups within the FOMC. “Those favoring lower rates are convinced inflation...