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What Does Macro Tides Have To Offer You?

And how can you determine if Macro Tides will fit for your needs? It's easy, read my overview summary.

You'll be able to judge my analysis on monetary policy, inflation outlook as inflation began to soar, and how the Dollar, Stock Market, Treasury yields, and Gold were expected to trade.

Thanks for taking the time.

Jim Knows How to Read The Markets

Jim Welsh has accumulated many accolades during his career, including for his prescient analysis of both the 2007-2008 market crash and the 2009 bullish reversal. Very few were able to accomplish this. Read Jim's free report covering his thoughts from those years to get a better sense of his process:

Read Jim's Free Fundamental Recap Report

After the 2008 and 2009 crash I looked for sources who had recommended getting out of the market in 2007 and 2008 but who had then turned bullish in February or March of 2009. While there were lots of people warning of impending doom in 2007 and 2008, they were still warning of impending doom in 2009 and 2010. And while many were bullish in the Spring of 2009, they were bullish all through the crash as well. After my extensive research (I spent well over 150 hours retrieving and reading available publications) I found only three who met my criteria for roughly “getting it right”: Jeffrey Gundlach, Ned Davis, and Jim Welsh. Jim does a great job of blending fundamental and technical analysis and communicating in a way I can understand. He is able to read the Fed minutes and identify gaps between what the Fed is saying and how it is being interpreted by the market.

- Dave B., Independent advisor Large National Wealth Management Firm

Jim Welsh has published a monthly investment letter since 1985 that focuses on Federal Reserve monetary policy, the economy, and the financial markets. He has managed a mutual fund, worked for major wire-houses, and has been widely published in financial media. Jim was Forward Funds' ($5.5 billion) Macro Tactical strategist for a number of years, and provides high quality economic and technical market analysis for advisors and investors as a guide to portfolio allocation and tactical portfolio changes.

Welsh's Macro Tides models identify trend changes in the domestic & international equity markets, fixed income, currency (USD & Euro) and Gold markets. The Macro Tides models place a heavy focus on Monetary Policy, traditional Economic Indicators, including Welsh's proprietary Major Trend Indicator, and selected Sentiment Indicators to create trade recommendations.

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Inflection Points

By the end of July a number of markets were at inflection points. The Dollar was on the cusp of a big rally. Treasury yields were trending higher. The S&P 500 peaked on July 27 and then declined by more than 7%. Gold was in a down trend.

In the July 24 Weekly Technical Review I told subscribers to expect:

  1. A -5% to -7% decline in the S&P 500
  2. A rally of at least 4% in the Dollar
  3. The trend in Treasury yields was up
  4. Gold was expected to drop to $1822

Read the July 24, 2023
Weekly Technical Review

Jim Welsh in the Media

Listen to Jim share his thoughts with podcasts, publications, and media outlets. Gain a better understanding of how he integrates his fundamental and technical analysis, broad experience, and knowledge of the markets into developing valuable Macro Tides newsletters that can provide insight to your decision making.

Watch Jim's Interviews

Technical Review

The Difference between Hearing and Listening

December 5, 2023

Technical Review

The FOMC and Financial Conditions

November 28, 2023

In his opening statement after the FOMC meeting on November 1 Chair Powell discussed Financial Conditions specifically. “ Financial conditions have tightened significantly in recent months, driven by higher longer-term bond yields, among other factors. Because persistent...

Technical Review

Demand for Loans Is Weak

November 13, 2023

The Federal Reserve released the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) last week and the results were interesting. The percentage of banks increasing their Lending Standards fell from 50.8% for the second quarter to 33.9% for the third quarter. On the surface the drop in the number of...

Technical Review

Goldilocks Data Spurs Amnesia

November 6, 2023

The economic data last week can be summarized as follows - Softer data, but not too weak to question the No Recession narrative. Chair Powell’s press conference went as I expected. He reiterated the same points he has for more than a year. The FOMC will continue until they are confident that...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Secular Bear Market in Treasury Bonds

November 3, 2023

Consumer Price (CPI) inflation peaked in 1981 and then trended lower for 40 years, and after 1997, Core Consumer inflation held below 2.5%. In April 2021 inflation broke out of this 24 year base with the headline CPI pushing above 4.0% and the...

Technical Review

No FOMC Rate Hike, but Hawkish Bias

November 1, 2023

I thought the GDP report would make the economy looks stronger than it really is and it did. GDP grew 4.9% in the third quarter according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s first estimate. The increase was led by an increase of 4.0% in consumer spending that contributed 2.69% of the total. As...

Technical Review

Special Update

October 23, 2023

As discussed in the Weekly Technical Review in recent weeks, TLT was approaching the end of a 5 Wave decline from its peak in March 2020 at 179.70. There is a chance that TLT could drop below 80.00 in response to the third quarter GDP report showing the economy growing at 3.5...

A Recession is Coming. Aggressive FOMC and Lending Tells the Story.

October 6, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about the markets ahead of the key NFP non-farm payroll jobs report tomorrow. He discusses the recession risks and how they are growing with tight lending standards and an aggressive Fed hike campaign.

Jim also covers the...

Wall Street Finally Getting the FOMC’s Message?

September 23, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks the very wild central bank meeting week the markets had, but most importantly how the market may finally be starting to understand the messaging that they have been trying to get across for months. Jim illustrates that between the “...

CPI to come in HOT next week!

September 9, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about the market ahead of the CPI and FOMC the next couple weeks. Jim will be out on holiday and wanted to give you a good update ahead of these two key events and the roadmap to what you might expect.

He shows and walks...

Technical Review

Powell and the FOMC Will Hold the Line

July 24, 2023

The FOMC will increase the Funds rate at their July 26 meeting by 0.25% to 5.25% - 5.50%. Chair Powell will do his best to convey that every meeting will be a ‘live’ meeting and that the FOMC hasn’t adopted an every other meeting increase format. He will emphasize that the FOMC remains data...

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