As expected, the FOMC voted to end its Quantitative Tightening program on December 1, so it will no longer allow $5 billion of Treasury debt a month roll off. The FOMC did vote to continue allowing $35 billion a month of Mortgage-Backed-Securities (MBS) to roll off. The $35 billion will be...

At one time the phrase “ A watched pot never boils” meant time seems to pass more slowly when one is waiting for something to happen. The time waiting also allows expectations to grow and I remember when the event I had been waiting for finally...

The FOMC will lower the Funds rate by 0.25% when the FOMC meets on Wednesday October 29, which won’t be a surprise to anyone. Financial markets will react positively if the FOMC announces they will be ending their Quantitative Tightening program since this move represents another easing of...

Rare earths are critical minerals used to manufacture magnets, which are key inputs for electric vehicles, the semiconductor industry, and the US military. Rare earths are crucial for various...

In recent weeks the S&P 500 managed to grind higher despite increasing signs of underlying weakness, as measured by the 21-day Advances – Declines Oscillator. On September 15 the S&P 500 closed at 6615 and on October 9 traded up to 6764, an increase of 2.25%. On Friday 3 weeks of gains...

The government shutdown and the suspension of long-standing economic reports is occurring at a potential inflection point in the current business cycle. The Federal Reserve needs to know if the labor market is stabilizing or weakening further and whether inflation is rising more than expected,...

After each FOMC member expresses their assessment of the economy, inflation, the labor market, and the appropriate level for the Funds rate during a FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chairs have attempted to build a consensus. During Ben Bernanke’s term as Chair (February 1, 2006...

Chair Powell noted that there is a real split within the FOMC. “We have 10 participants out of 19 who wrote down two or more cuts for the remainder of the year and nine who wrote down fewer than two cuts.” Based on the projections in the SEP, there is one group (9) who is more worried about...

In his Jackson Hole speech in August 2023 Chair Powell said, “ We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies ". During Chair Powell’s press conference after the September 17 FOMC meeting he said, “ Right now is a particularly challenging time, even more uncertain than usual.” As Chair...

FOMC members will discuss at length the labor market and attempt to access its strength and whether recent reports elevate downside risks to job growth and higher unemployment. They will have a lot to discuss since most the of the recent data have shown softening of demand and hiring. The Ratio...