The Federal Reserve released the minutes from the January 28 FOMC meeting on February 18 and they were revealing. The minutes reaffirmed my view that there are 3 groups within the FOMC and the lines between them are entrenched, unless incoming data...

In July 2015, the USA, UK, France, China, Russia, plus Germany agreed to the Iran Nuclear Deal formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran. The purpose of the deal was to ensure Iran wouldn’t be able to develop a nuclear weapon by capping uranium enrichment. The...

The Supreme Court ruled that the executive branch of government doesn’t have the power to levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which was passed in 1977. The Act authorizes the Executive Branch (president) to use the law “ to deal with any unusual and...

The next FOMC meeting is on March 18 and every economic report should be evaluated on whether it increases the odds of a rate cut or maintaining the status quo. As discussed in the February Macro Tides, there are three groups within the FOMC. “Those favoring lower rates are convinced inflation...

The January Employment Report, which was delayed because of the government shutdown, will be released on February 11 and the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due on Friday February 13.

Anxiety about the health of the labor market was heightened after three reports released last...

The labor market appears to have stabilized, GDP growth is comfortably above the economy’s long term non-inflationary growth potential of 1.9%, and inflation is above the 2% target. This mix of economic variables has created three groups within the FOMC. Those...

In the January 27 Weekly Technical Review, I noted that Gold and Silver were in an historic run that was destined to end badly. “ The ETF for Silver is SLV and today more than $30 billion of SLV was traded, versus $8.3 billion in Microsoft. This is another indication that speculation is...

Japanese government bond yields have been climbing for many months. Initially, it was in response to the Bank of Japan (BOJ) unwinding decades of extreme monetary accommodation. In response to a collapse in real estate values and the Nikkie 225, the BOJ slashed its policy rate from 6.0% in 1991...

On January 17 President Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland unless they dropped their...

The FOMC chose to lower the Funds rate in September, October, and December, after significant revisions lowered job growth for May, June, and July last year on September 5. On September 9, the BLS revised job growth down from April 2024 through March 2025 by -911,000....