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And how can you determine if Macro Tides will fit for your needs? It's easy, read my overview summary.

You'll be able to judge my analysis on monetary policy, inflation outlook as inflation began to soar, and how the Dollar, Stock Market, Treasury yields, and Gold were expected to trade.

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Jim Knows How to Read The Markets

Jim Welsh has accumulated many accolades during his career, including for his prescient analysis of both the 2007-2008 market crash and the 2009 bullish reversal. Very few were able to accomplish this. Read Jim's free report covering his thoughts from those years to get a better sense of his process:

Read Jim's Free Fundamental Recap Report

After the 2008 and 2009 crash I looked for sources who had recommended getting out of the market in 2007 and 2008 but who had then turned bullish in February or March of 2009. While there were lots of people warning of impending doom in 2007 and 2008, they were still warning of impending doom in 2009 and 2010. And while many were bullish in the Spring of 2009, they were bullish all through the crash as well. After my extensive research (I spent well over 150 hours retrieving and reading available publications) I found only three who met my criteria for roughly “getting it right”: Jeffrey Gundlach, Ned Davis, and Jim Welsh. Jim does a great job of blending fundamental and technical analysis and communicating in a way I can understand. He is able to read the Fed minutes and identify gaps between what the Fed is saying and how it is being interpreted by the market.

- Dave B., Independent advisor Large National Wealth Management Firm

Jim Welsh has published a monthly investment letter since 1985 that focuses on Federal Reserve monetary policy, the economy, and the financial markets. He has managed a mutual fund, worked for major wire-houses, and has been widely published in financial media. Jim was Forward Funds' ($5.5 billion) Macro Tactical strategist for a number of years, and provides high quality economic and technical market analysis for advisors and investors as a guide to portfolio allocation and tactical portfolio changes.

Welsh's Macro Tides models identify trend changes in the domestic & international equity markets, fixed income, currency (USD & Euro) and Gold markets. The Macro Tides models place a heavy focus on Monetary Policy, traditional Economic Indicators, including Welsh's proprietary Major Trend Indicator, and selected Sentiment Indicators to create trade recommendations.

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Inflection Points

By the end of July a number of markets were at inflection points. The Dollar was on the cusp of a big rally. Treasury yields were trending higher. The S&P 500 peaked on July 27 and then declined by more than 7%. Gold was in a down trend.

In the July 24 Weekly Technical Review I told subscribers to expect:

  1. A -5% to -7% decline in the S&P 500
  2. A rally of at least 4% in the Dollar
  3. The trend in Treasury yields was up
  4. Gold was expected to drop to $1822

Read the July 24, 2023
Weekly Technical Review

Jim Welsh in the Media

Listen to Jim share his thoughts with podcasts, publications, and media outlets. Gain a better understanding of how he integrates his fundamental and technical analysis, broad experience, and knowledge of the markets into developing valuable Macro Tides newsletters that can provide insight to your decision making.

Watch Jim's Interviews

Technical Review

Headlines and the Devil in the Details

June 11, 2024

The headline proclaimed that 272,000 jobs were created in May which was 50% higher than the forecast gain of 180,000. Wages grew 0.4% in May and were up 4.1% from last year. The increase in the Unemployment Rate from 3.9% to 4.0% was easily dismissed in the face of stronger job growth. A look...

Technical Review

The Economy Is Slowing

June 4, 2024

The second estimate for first quarter GDP was revised down from 1.6% to 1.3%. As in the first report GDP was held down by an increase in imports (-0.9%) and decrease in inventories (-0.5%). As I’ve discussed imports reflect demand that is satisfied by production overseas, which is why it is...

Global Economic Report

Be Careful What You Wish For

June 3, 2024

Wall Street has been obsessed with guessing when the FOMC will lower the Funds rate for the first time and the number of times in 2024. It’s been an instructive process. In December many on Wall Street forecast the FOMC would make the first rate cut at the March...

Technical Review

A Top in the S&P 500 Is Approaching

May 29, 2024

Many FOMC members have given speeches or interviews since the last FOMC meeting and the message has been fairly uniform. Paraphrasing: ‘ We’re not ready to cut the Funds rate until we have more confidence inflation will return to 2.0%, nor do we think there will be a need to increase the Funds...

Technical Review

Lower CPI Won’t Alter FOMC Policy

May 21, 2024

In last week’s WTR I reviewed why the April CPI was expected to show a decline in annual inflation and spur rallies in the S&P 500, Gold, Treasury bond prices, and a decline in the Dollar.

Technical Review

Data Has Delivered Negative Surprises

May 14, 2024

Wall Street is convinced that the economy will strengthen in the second half of 2024 and enable earnings to grow by more than 10% in 2024. The increase in confidence is doubling interesting since recent data has consistently been weaker than forecast.

The Citi Economic Surprise Index (...

Technical Review

The Economy Is Slowing

May 7, 2024

The FOMC meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference overshadowed economic data last week. Going into the FOMC meeting Wall Street was concerned that after 3 months of not good inflation data the FOMC might consider a rate hike, rather than numerous cuts in 2024. The idea that the FOMC would...

Global Economic Report

Rate Cuts in 2024 Postponed

May 1, 2024

In the April Macro Tides I reviewed previous statements Chair Powell had made in speeches and during his post FOMC meeting press conferences and highlighted the emphasis he placed on the importance of confidence. “In speeches, testimony before Congress,...

Technical Review

GDP Strength and Sticky PCE Inflation

April 30, 2024

GDP growth slowed in the first quarter to 1.6% down from 2.4% in the fourth quarter and a strong 4.9% in the third quarter. On the surface it looked like the economy had decelerated far more than expectations, but a closer look revealed that inventories (-0.3%) and imports (-0.9%) suppressed...

Technical Review

Good News Is Not Good Anymore

April 23, 2024

In the second half of 2023 the correlation with the Federal Funds Rate futures (blue line inverted to align with changes in the S&P 500) and the S&P 500 was high. The S&P 500 bottomed in October as the prospect for rate cuts increased (blue line). The S&P 500 marched higher in...

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