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And how can you determine if Macro Tides will fit for your needs? It's easy, read my overview summary.

You'll be able to judge my analysis on monetary policy, inflation outlook as inflation began to soar, and how the Dollar, Stock Market, Treasury yields, and Gold were expected to trade.

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Jim Knows How to Read The Markets

Jim Welsh has accumulated many accolades during his career, including for his prescient analysis of both the 2007-2008 market crash and the 2009 bullish reversal. Very few were able to accomplish this. Read Jim's free report covering his thoughts from those years to get a better sense of his process:

Read Jim's Free Fundamental Recap Report

After the 2008 and 2009 crash I looked for sources who had recommended getting out of the market in 2007 and 2008 but who had then turned bullish in February or March of 2009. While there were lots of people warning of impending doom in 2007 and 2008, they were still warning of impending doom in 2009 and 2010. And while many were bullish in the Spring of 2009, they were bullish all through the crash as well. After my extensive research (I spent well over 150 hours retrieving and reading available publications) I found only three who met my criteria for roughly “getting it right”: Jeffrey Gundlach, Ned Davis, and Jim Welsh. Jim does a great job of blending fundamental and technical analysis and communicating in a way I can understand. He is able to read the Fed minutes and identify gaps between what the Fed is saying and how it is being interpreted by the market.

- Dave B., Independent advisor Large National Wealth Management Firm

Jim Welsh has published a monthly investment letter since 1985 that focuses on Federal Reserve monetary policy, the economy, and the financial markets. He has managed a mutual fund, worked for major wire-houses, and has been widely published in financial media. Jim was Forward Funds' ($5.5 billion) Macro Tactical strategist for a number of years, and provides high quality economic and technical market analysis for advisors and investors as a guide to portfolio allocation and tactical portfolio changes.

Welsh's Macro Tides models identify trend changes in the domestic & international equity markets, fixed income, currency (USD & Euro) and Gold markets. The Macro Tides models place a heavy focus on Monetary Policy, traditional Economic Indicators, including Welsh's proprietary Major Trend Indicator, and selected Sentiment Indicators to create trade recommendations.

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Inflection Points

By the end of July a number of markets were at inflection points. The Dollar was on the cusp of a big rally. Treasury yields were trending higher. The S&P 500 peaked on July 27 and then declined by more than 7%. Gold was in a down trend.

In the July 24 Weekly Technical Review I told subscribers to expect:

  1. A -5% to -7% decline in the S&P 500
  2. A rally of at least 4% in the Dollar
  3. The trend in Treasury yields was up
  4. Gold was expected to drop to $1822

Read the July 24, 2023
Weekly Technical Review

Jim Welsh in the Media

Listen to Jim share his thoughts with podcasts, publications, and media outlets. Gain a better understanding of how he integrates his fundamental and technical analysis, broad experience, and knowledge of the markets into developing valuable Macro Tides newsletters that can provide insight to your decision making.

Watch Jim's Interviews

Technical Review

Sticky Inflation and Cold Weather

February 16, 2024

In January the Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from 3.4% to 3.1% but Core inflation held steady at 3.9%. Wall Street expected Headline inflation to drop to 2.9% and 3.6% for the Core. The sticky part was the monthly increase was 0.3% versus 0.2% in December for the Headline and 0.4%...

Technical Review

Waiting for the Economic Slowdown

February 13, 2024

At the end of December the Federal Funds rate futures pegged the odds of a rate cut at the March FOMC meeting at 90%. Last week the odds the FOMC would lower the Funds rate in March was less than 20%. In January Wall Street was projecting the FOMC would lower the Funds rate 7 times in 2024 with...

Technical Review

What No Cut in March!?!

February 6, 2024

The FOMC statement was particularly direct in summing up the mindset of the FOMC. “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”

During the press conference...

Technical Review

Special Update - TLT and S&P 500

February 4, 2024
1

TLT was expected to rally to 96.50 – 97.50 for wave b, before declining below 93.10 for wave c to complete the correction from 100.57. TLT exceeded the target range for wave b on February 1 by a small amount. In response to the January Employment report Treasury yields are ramping higher and...

Global Economic Report

The Longer Term View

February 1, 2024

Tracking the paths created by financial markets is a different form of hunting. Most investors rely on economic data to determine whether it’s a good time to invest or not. They follow economic data as if data were Tea Leaves providing...

Technical Review

Will Powell Provide Any Hints?

January 30, 2024

The FOMC won’t make a change to the Funds rate on Wednesday and will likely only change a few words in the FOMC Statement. Markets will focus on Chair Powell’s press conference for any indication that the FOMC is leaning to lowering the Funds rate at the March 20 meeting. President Truman...

Technical Review

Two Faces of the Economy and Stocks

January 23, 2024

In November consumer borrowing zoomed by $23.75 billion boosted by an increase of $19.5 billion in spending on credit cards. In records going back to 1943 November was the third highest increase ever. The surge in consumer spending continued in December as the monthly increase in Retail Sales...

Technical Review

FOMC – No Hurry to Cut

January 17, 2024

The Consumer Price Index for December came in a little hotter than expected by Wall Street. The monthly increase for the Headline and Core was 0.3% compared to estimates of 0.2% for the Headline and 0.3% for Core. As a result the annual rate for the Headline CPI rose to 3.4% but the Core CPI...

Technical Review

Economy Holding Up as Expected

January 9, 2024

In the January Macro Tides I discussed several reasons why the economy was expected to hold up in the first quarter. “ The Unemployment Rate in November was 3.7% hovering near the lowest level of the last 50 years. Wage growth has slowed but wages were still up 5.2% from November 2022 through...

Technical Review

The 17 year Cycle and 2024

January 3, 2024

The Table recounts a recurring 17 year cycle showing that in the five instances since 1939 the S&P 500 declined by more than -20% after a peak with plunges of -48.4% in the 1973 – 1974 bear market and -57.7% during the 2008 Financial Crisis. The length of time for each decline to unfold...

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