Monthly Global Economic Reports

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Secular Bear Market in Treasury Bonds

November 3, 2023

Consumer Price (CPI) inflation peaked in 1981 and then trended lower for 40 years, and after 1997, Core Consumer inflation held below 2.5%. In April 2021 inflation broke out of this 24 year base with the headline CPI pushing above 4.0% and the...

Global Economic Report

China Reverses Course

October 1, 2021

The British Empire lasted from 1550 to 1900 a great run of almost 350 years. France exerted a global influence that lasted for 270 years and ran from 1610 to 1880. The majority of other countries power lasted for a shorter durations. The United...

Global Economic Report

Inflationary Pressures Aren't Easing

August 1, 2021

The four components of the current inflationary push – Base Effects, Supply Chain problems, Service inflation, Wages – were reviewed in the June Macro Tides. If inflation is going to be transitory there should be visible progress on each of these components. Base...

Global Economic Report

Increase in Core Inflation Won’t Be Transitory

July 2, 2021

For decades the Federal Reserve anticipated inflation whenever the Unemployment Rate fell to a low level. In 9 of the last 10 recessions since 1954 the Fed hiked the federal funds rate over a period of time until they went too far. The Unemployment Rate subsequently jumped as the...

Global Economic Report

Transitory Inflation? Not so Quick

June 1, 2021

Transitory is defined as being of brief duration, tending to pass away and not persistent. The problem facing the FOMC is that the four factors driving the current wave of inflation will each have a different and longer shelf life. Base Effects are...