Monthly Global Economic Reports

After the election the prospect of tariffs resulted in changes in behavior by businesses and consumers. Those companies directly impacted by the coming higher cost of goods from tariffs responded by buying goods they would need later, but decided to make...

A February 19 poll by Gallup asked Americans whether they approved what President Trump had done so far after returning to the White House on January 20. The poll found an enormous split between the political parties with 93% of Republicans approving...

Niels Bohr won the Nobel Prize for Physics in 1922 for his work on the atom. After Sweden was taken over by the Nazi’s, Niels Bohr emigrated to the US in 1939. He was a member of the Manhattan Project in 1942 that eventually developed the first atomic bomb. Despite his...

During Chair Powell’s December 18 press conference, Powell used the word uncertainty 10 times as he discussed the outlook for the labor market, inflation, the level of the neutral rate, and how President Trump’s agenda could impact monetary policy.

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After the FOMC meeting on November 7 Chair Powell began the press conference with an opening statement that presented a review of the progress monetary policy had achieved in the last two years. “ The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary...

According to data from the World Bank, the average annual increase in global GDP since 2010 has been around 2.7%, including large fluctuations depending on the year. During that same period GDP growth in China averaged 6.8%. After China joined the World Trade...

In coming months the pace and size of rate cuts will be totaling dependent on future economic data. In his post FOMC press conference Chair Powell made this point clearly. “In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the...

The Path of Monetary Policy

Travel is the embodiment of discretionary spending and it provides a reflection of how people feel about their personal finances and the economy. In 2019 (pink line) 2,500,000 people were traveling leading up...

In the 1954 movie “ The High and the Mighty ” a flight from Honolulu to San Francisco loses one of the four engines and the loss of gas. The engine crisis occurs just beyond the point of no return. The point of no return is where the option to turn back is no longer...

The expert and you are in a car and the expert is driving. After awhile, you notice that the expert is driving the car by looking through the rearview mirror. Concerned you ask him why he’s not looking ahead as he drives. He replies...