Monthly Global Economic Reports

Global Economic Report

Labor Market Trends

April 1, 2024

The evolution of rate cut enthusiasm in 2024 is an example of investors anticipating what will happen only to be proven wrong. The irony is that professionals on Wall Street frequently cite the Federal Funds rate futures as a basis for their outlook for monetary...

Global Economic Report

Peak Optimism?

March 4, 2024

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for the first quarter GDP is for the economy to grow by 2.1%, so no sign of a real slowdown yet, and Wall Street expects earnings to be up by 15% by the first quarter of 2025. Wall Street has adjusted to the new reality that the FOMC won...

Global Economic Report

The Longer Term View

February 1, 2024

Tracking the paths created by financial markets is a different form of hunting. Most investors rely on economic data to determine whether it’s a good time to invest or not. They follow economic data as if data were Tea Leaves providing...

Global Economic Report

Optimism Is High

January 3, 2024

Heading into 2024 Wall Street and most investors are positive about the economy and the outlook for stock prices. Inflation is expected to decline as consumer spending holds up. The drop in inflation will allow the FOMC to lower the Funds rate as economic growth...

Global Economic Report

Monetary Policy in 2024

December 11, 2023

Wall Street is forecasting that GDP will slow in the first half of 2024 with growth averaging 0.35%, so a recession will be avoided. Wall Street expects the FOMC to cut the Funds rate by 0.25% in March and 4 more times by the end of 2024. The FOMC...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Secular Bear Market in Treasury Bonds

November 3, 2023

Consumer Price (CPI) inflation peaked in 1981 and then trended lower for 40 years, and after 1997, Core Consumer inflation held below 2.5%. In April 2021 inflation broke out of this 24 year base with the headline CPI pushing above 4.0% and the...

Global Economic Report

China Reverses Course

October 1, 2021

The British Empire lasted from 1550 to 1900 a great run of almost 350 years. France exerted a global influence that lasted for 270 years and ran from 1610 to 1880. The majority of other countries power lasted for a shorter durations. The United...

Global Economic Report

Inflationary Pressures Aren't Easing

August 1, 2021

The four components of the current inflationary push – Base Effects, Supply Chain problems, Service inflation, Wages – were reviewed in the June Macro Tides. If inflation is going to be transitory there should be visible progress on each of these components. Base...

Global Economic Report

Increase in Core Inflation Won’t Be Transitory

July 2, 2021

For decades the Federal Reserve anticipated inflation whenever the Unemployment Rate fell to a low level. In 9 of the last 10 recessions since 1954 the Fed hiked the federal funds rate over a period of time until they went too far. The Unemployment Rate subsequently jumped as the...

Global Economic Report

Transitory Inflation? Not so Quick

June 1, 2021

Transitory is defined as being of brief duration, tending to pass away and not persistent. The problem facing the FOMC is that the four factors driving the current wave of inflation will each have a different and longer shelf life. Base Effects are...