Weekly Technical Reviews

Technical Review

Nothing to Worry About! What?

As promised President Trump levied tariffs on Canada and Mexico on February 1. The stock market started getting concerned on January 31 and the S&P 500 fell from 6121 to a low just after the market opened on February 3 of 5924. On Monday February 3 Canada and Mexico offered concessions that...

Technical Review

Tit for Tat Tariffs

I’m not a fan of using tariffs as a blunt instrument or protectionism.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that free trade after 1950 cumulatively boosted the U.S. economy by $2.6 trillion, or $19,500 a household. A 2021 study by Oxford Economics and the U.S.-...

Technical Review

President Trump Won’t Be a Bull in a China Shop

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) offered a glint of positive news and the markets rejoiced. The Annual increase in the Core CPI dipped from 3.3% to 3.2% which was enough to alleviate the building concern the FOMC might actually increase the Funds rate in 2025, rather than lower it as noted last...

Technical Review

Perceptions of Inflation Are Inflating

On January 10 the Labor Department reported that 256,000 jobs were created in December and the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. Wage growth eased from 4.0% to 3.9%. Overall the December report was solid, but not without a statistical blemish. The Seasonal adjustment...

Technical Review

High Expectations

The 59 th Super Bowl will be played on February 9 and the build up to the game will be outrageous. According to NBC roughly 62.5 million around the world watched the last Super Bowl. For many viewers of the Super Bowl the hype is more often greater than the actual game. In fact, of the prior 58...

Technical Review

FOMC Inflation Concerns

I thought the FOMC would lower the Funds rate by 0.25% at the December 18 meeting and might indicate less than 3 cuts in 2025. “Despite the inflation data the FOMC will lower the Funds rate by 0.25% at the December 18 meeting, after what will likely be a spirited debate. I think the Hawks and...

Technical Review

Inflation and the November Deficit

Last week the Treasury market was buffeted by two unfriendly inflation reports and news that the Federal budget deficit soared in November. Based on the Headlines for each report, inflation appeared to be worse than sticky. The prospect of an endless supply of Treasury debt weighed on Treasury...

Technical Review

The Economic Surprise Index Is Weakening

The November Employment report showed an increase of 227,000 jobs, but most of the increase (61.6%) was concentrated in three sectors. Health Care added 54,000 jobs, Leisure and Hospitality contributed 53,000, and the number of government workers increased by 33,000. In the last 12 months these...

Technical Review

Economic Uncertainty

There were many issues that led more Democrats to vote for President Trump in the 2024 election, but inflation and the economy were the top 2. Numerous polls prior to the election showed 65% of voters rated the economy as poor or not so good. On the issue of the economy voters favored President...

Technical Review

Economic Optimism

For Republicans, Wall Street, and Bitcoin, Christmas came on November 5. “ The election was settled a fortnight ago, while visions of sugar plums dance in our heads .” The assumption that President Trump’s policies will only have a positive impact on economic growth is naïve.

Over the...

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