Weekly Technical Reviews

Technical Review

Nvidia vs. the FOMC Minutes

February 23, 2024

On February 21 Nvidia reported earnings and the minutes from the FOMC meeting on January 31 were published. With all the hype surrounding Nvidia’s earnings report the FOMC minutes were ignored. Nvidia’s earnings and subsequent rally (+16.4% on February 22) and impact on the S&P 500 are the...

Technical Review

Sticky Inflation and Cold Weather

February 16, 2024

In January the Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from 3.4% to 3.1% but Core inflation held steady at 3.9%. Wall Street expected Headline inflation to drop to 2.9% and 3.6% for the Core. The sticky part was the monthly increase was 0.3% versus 0.2% in December for the Headline and 0.4%...

Technical Review

Waiting for the Economic Slowdown

February 13, 2024

At the end of December the Federal Funds rate futures pegged the odds of a rate cut at the March FOMC meeting at 90%. Last week the odds the FOMC would lower the Funds rate in March was less than 20%. In January Wall Street was projecting the FOMC would lower the Funds rate 7 times in 2024 with...

Technical Review

What No Cut in March!?!

February 6, 2024

The FOMC statement was particularly direct in summing up the mindset of the FOMC. “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”

During the press conference...

Technical Review

Special Update - TLT and S&P 500

February 4, 2024
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TLT was expected to rally to 96.50 – 97.50 for wave b, before declining below 93.10 for wave c to complete the correction from 100.57. TLT exceeded the target range for wave b on February 1 by a small amount. In response to the January Employment report Treasury yields are ramping higher and...

Technical Review

Will Powell Provide Any Hints?

January 30, 2024

The FOMC won’t make a change to the Funds rate on Wednesday and will likely only change a few words in the FOMC Statement. Markets will focus on Chair Powell’s press conference for any indication that the FOMC is leaning to lowering the Funds rate at the March 20 meeting. President Truman...

Technical Review

Two Faces of the Economy and Stocks

January 23, 2024

In November consumer borrowing zoomed by $23.75 billion boosted by an increase of $19.5 billion in spending on credit cards. In records going back to 1943 November was the third highest increase ever. The surge in consumer spending continued in December as the monthly increase in Retail Sales...

Technical Review

FOMC – No Hurry to Cut

January 17, 2024

The Consumer Price Index for December came in a little hotter than expected by Wall Street. The monthly increase for the Headline and Core was 0.3% compared to estimates of 0.2% for the Headline and 0.3% for Core. As a result the annual rate for the Headline CPI rose to 3.4% but the Core CPI...

Technical Review

Economy Holding Up as Expected

January 9, 2024

In the January Macro Tides I discussed several reasons why the economy was expected to hold up in the first quarter. “ The Unemployment Rate in November was 3.7% hovering near the lowest level of the last 50 years. Wage growth has slowed but wages were still up 5.2% from November 2022 through...

Technical Review

The 17 year Cycle and 2024

January 3, 2024

The Table recounts a recurring 17 year cycle showing that in the five instances since 1939 the S&P 500 declined by more than -20% after a peak with plunges of -48.4% in the 1973 – 1974 bear market and -57.7% during the 2008 Financial Crisis. The length of time for each decline to unfold...