Technical Review

FOMC – SEP vs. the Dots

I thought that the Median projection for rate cuts in 2024 would fall from 3 to 2. It turns out I was only about half right. In the March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Median estimate for the Funds rate at the end of 2024 was 4.6% and no different than the December SEP. This is why Wall Street celebrated and believes the FOMC will deliver the rate cut goods. But a deeper dive reveals some differences that suggest even more FOMC members could scale back their projection from 3 to 2 cuts, if inflation doesn’t exhibit more slowing . In December there were 5 members who expected...

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