Fundamental Analysis

A Recession is Coming. Aggressive FOMC and Lending Tells the Story.

October 6, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about the markets ahead of the key NFP non-farm payroll jobs report tomorrow. He discusses the recession risks and how they are growing with tight lending standards and an aggressive Fed hike campaign.

Jim also covers the...

CPI to come in HOT next week!

September 9, 2023

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about the market ahead of the CPI and FOMC the next couple weeks. Jim will be out on holiday and wanted to give you a good update ahead of these two key events and the roadmap to what you might expect.

He shows and walks...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Macro Factors and their impact on Monetary Policy, the Economy, and Financial Markets

Thank you for your interest in my analysis.

The cornerstone of my Tactical Strategy is the intersection of Economic Fundamentals, Monetary Policy, and Technical Analysis. The combination of these has helped me implement an effective Tactical Strategy that seeks to identify...

Are You Ready for the 10 Year Bear Market

May 17, 2023

Jim Welsh believes that the coming secular bear market has already begun and that it will be worse than the 1966-1982 period. He bases this on factors such as debt, demographics, and the risk of war. He believes that the economy will slow in the second half of 2021 and that the market will...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Tactical Strategy

The cornerstone of my Tactical Strategy is the intersection of Economic Fundamentals, Monetary Policy, and Technical Analysis. Combining fundamental and technical analysis has helped me implement an effective Tactical Strategy. This combination was particularly effective in 2022.

Below...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

A Secular 15 Year Bear Market Is Coming

Will You Be Ready?

The stock market rewards the Buy and Hold investment strategy during a Secular Bull Market as every cyclical bear market is followed by higher highs. The S&P 500 has repeatedly made a new all time high since the low in March 2009, despite a number of meaningful setbacks. Investors have...

Technical Review

Six Dominoes of Recession

Recessions are not random.

Stock values are determined by the level of interest rates and in large part by earnings. As earnings increase over time investors are often willing to pay a higher price for stocks during a bull market. This is why the Price / Earnings Ratio moves up until...

Global Economic Report

Recap 2007-2010

The following is a recap of the stock market analysis I provided in my monthly investment letter “Macro Tides” from early 2007 to April 8, 2010. My approach combines both fundamental analysis and technical analysis, which is unusual. Most economists and market strategists rely almost...

Global Economic Report

Fundamental Recap - 2007-2009

The following is a recap of the economic and stock market analysis provided in my monthly investment letter “ Macro Tides ” from January 2007 to December 2009. The majority of economists and financial advisors failed to see the credit crisis coming in 2007, and also failed to...

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