Monthly Global Economic Reports

Wall Street is forecasting that GDP will slow in the first half of 2024 with growth averaging 0.35%, so a recession will be avoided. Wall Street expects the FOMC to cut the Funds rate by 0.25% in March and 4 more times by the end of 2024. The FOMC...

Consumer Price (CPI) inflation peaked in 1981 and then trended lower for 40 years, and after 1997, Core Consumer inflation held below 2.5%. In April 2021 inflation broke out of this 24 year base with the headline CPI pushing above 4.0% and the...

The British Empire lasted from 1550 to 1900 a great run of almost 350 years. France exerted a global influence that lasted for 270 years and ran from 1610 to 1880. The majority of other countries power lasted for a shorter durations. The United...

The four components of the current inflationary push – Base Effects, Supply Chain problems, Service inflation, Wages – were reviewed in the June Macro Tides. If inflation is going to be transitory there should be visible progress on each of these components. Base...

For decades the Federal Reserve anticipated inflation whenever the Unemployment Rate fell to a low level. In 9 of the last 10 recessions since 1954 the Fed hiked the federal funds rate over a period of time until they went too far. The Unemployment Rate subsequently jumped as the...

Transitory is defined as being of brief duration, tending to pass away and not persistent. The problem facing the FOMC is that the four factors driving the current wave of inflation will each have a different and longer shelf life. Base Effects are...