During Chair Powell’s December 18 press conference, Powell used the word uncertainty 10 times as he discussed the outlook for the labor market, inflation, the level of the neutral rate, and how President Trump’s agenda could impact monetary policy.
After the FOMC meeting on November 7 Chair Powell began the press conference with an opening statement that presented a review of the progress monetary policy had achieved in the last two years. “ The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary...
According to data from the World Bank, the average annual increase in global GDP since 2010 has been around 2.7%, including large fluctuations depending on the year. During that same period GDP growth in China averaged 6.8%. After China joined the World Trade...
In coming months the pace and size of rate cuts will be totaling dependent on future economic data. In his post FOMC press conference Chair Powell made this point clearly. “In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the...
Travel is the embodiment of discretionary spending and it provides a reflection of how people feel about their personal finances and the economy. In 2019 (pink line) 2,500,000 people were traveling leading up...
In the 1954 movie “ The High and the Mighty ” a flight from Honolulu to San Francisco loses one of the four engines and the loss of gas. The engine crisis occurs just beyond the point of no return. The point of no return is where the option to turn back is no longer...
The expert and you are in a car and the expert is driving. After awhile, you notice that the expert is driving the car by looking through the rearview mirror. Concerned you ask him why he’s not looking ahead as he drives. He replies...
Wall Street has been obsessed with guessing when the FOMC will lower the Funds rate for the first time and the number of times in 2024. It’s been an instructive process. In December many on Wall Street forecast the FOMC would make the first rate cut at the March...
In the April Macro Tides I reviewed previous statements Chair Powell had made in speeches and during his post FOMC meeting press conferences and highlighted the emphasis he placed on the importance of confidence. “In speeches, testimony before Congress,...
The evolution of rate cut enthusiasm in 2024 is an example of investors anticipating what will happen only to be proven wrong. The irony is that professionals on Wall Street frequently cite the Federal Funds rate futures as a basis for their outlook for monetary...
