Technical Review

The 17 year Cycle and 2024

The Table recounts a recurring 17 year cycle showing that in the five instances since 1939 the S&P 500 declined by more than -20% after a peak with plunges of -48.4% in the 1973 – 1974 bear market and -57.7% during the 2008 Financial Crisis. The length of time for each decline to unfold varied from 1 month in 1939 to 22 months in 1974. The 17 year cycle suggests that we should be on guard for a decline of more than -20% in 2024. The reasons for the declines varied so there wasn’t a common causal theme. But there were recessions in 1957, 1974, 1990, and 2008 after the cycle highs in...

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