Jim Welsh's Contributions

Technical Review

Nothing to Worry About! What?

February 11, 2025

As promised President Trump levied tariffs on Canada and Mexico on February 1. The stock market started getting concerned on January 31 and the S&P 500 fell from 6121 to a low just after the market opened on February 3 of 5924. On Monday February 3 Canada and Mexico offered concessions that...

Technical Review

Tit for Tat Tariffs

February 4, 2025

I’m not a fan of using tariffs as a blunt instrument or protectionism.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that free trade after 1950 cumulatively boosted the U.S. economy by $2.6 trillion, or $19,500 a household. A 2021 study by Oxford Economics and the U.S.-...

Global Economic Report

FOMC on Hold

February 3, 2025

Niels Bohr won the Nobel Prize for Physics in 1922 for his work on the atom. After Sweden was taken over by the Nazi’s, Niels Bohr emigrated to the US in 1939. He was a member of the Manhattan Project in 1942 that eventually developed the first atomic bomb. Despite his...

DeepSeek Deep Sixes Nvidia

January 28, 2025

The Chinese firm DeepSeek just upset the computing and investing world that relies on a smarter approach, rather than using more expensive computing power. Currently, Artificial Intelligence relies heavily on Graphic Processing Units (GPU’s) that cost $40,000 each and need massive data centers...

Technical Review

President Trump Won’t Be a Bull in a China Shop

January 21, 2025

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) offered a glint of positive news and the markets rejoiced. The Annual increase in the Core CPI dipped from 3.3% to 3.2% which was enough to alleviate the building concern the FOMC might actually increase the Funds rate in 2025, rather than lower it as noted last...

Technical Review

Perceptions of Inflation Are Inflating

January 14, 2025

On January 10 the Labor Department reported that 256,000 jobs were created in December and the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. Wage growth eased from 4.0% to 3.9%. Overall the December report was solid, but not without a statistical blemish. The Seasonal adjustment...

Technical Review

High Expectations

January 7, 2025

The 59 th Super Bowl will be played on February 9 and the build up to the game will be outrageous. According to NBC roughly 62.5 million around the world watched the last Super Bowl. For many viewers of the Super Bowl the hype is more often greater than the actual game. In fact, of the prior 58...

Global Economic Report

A Year of Disruption

January 6, 2025

During Chair Powell’s December 18 press conference, Powell used the word uncertainty 10 times as he discussed the outlook for the labor market, inflation, the level of the neutral rate, and how President Trump’s agenda could impact monetary policy.

...

Technical Review

FOMC Inflation Concerns

December 24, 2024

I thought the FOMC would lower the Funds rate by 0.25% at the December 18 meeting and might indicate less than 3 cuts in 2025. “Despite the inflation data the FOMC will lower the Funds rate by 0.25% at the December 18 meeting, after what will likely be a spirited debate. I think the Hawks and...

Technical Review

Inflation and the November Deficit

December 16, 2024

Last week the Treasury market was buffeted by two unfriendly inflation reports and news that the Federal budget deficit soared in November. Based on the Headlines for each report, inflation appeared to be worse than sticky. The prospect of an endless supply of Treasury debt weighed on Treasury...

Technical Review

The Economic Surprise Index Is Weakening

December 10, 2024

The November Employment report showed an increase of 227,000 jobs, but most of the increase (61.6%) was concentrated in three sectors. Health Care added 54,000 jobs, Leisure and Hospitality contributed 53,000, and the number of government workers increased by 33,000. In the last 12 months these...

Global Economic Report

Economic Uncertainty

December 2, 2024

After the FOMC meeting on November 7 Chair Powell began the press conference with an opening statement that presented a review of the progress monetary policy had achieved in the last two years. “ The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary...

Technical Review

Economic Uncertainty

December 2, 2024

There were many issues that led more Democrats to vote for President Trump in the 2024 election, but inflation and the economy were the top 2. Numerous polls prior to the election showed 65% of voters rated the economy as poor or not so good. On the issue of the economy voters favored President...

Technical Review

Economic Optimism

November 26, 2024

For Republicans, Wall Street, and Bitcoin, Christmas came on November 5. “ The election was settled a fortnight ago, while visions of sugar plums dance in our heads .” The assumption that President Trump’s policies will only have a positive impact on economic growth is naïve.

Over the...

Technical Review

Assumptions

November 19, 2024

A long time ago a mentor asked me to make 3 words from the word assume. After a few minutes I came up with ass-u-me. In the wake of the election many people are making assumptions about what will happen in the next Trump administration. It’s likely that much of the assumptions will, with the...

Technical Review

Election Surprise and Steady FOMC

November 12, 2024

I thought the election would be close and that it might take 2 or 3 days before the outcome would be known. The election wasn’t close which saved the country more angst no matter who won. In the wake of the Republican landslide, the Democratic Party must muster the courage for self reflection...

Technical Review

Jobs, the FOMC, and the Election

November 5, 2024

Job growth plunged in October with just 12,000 jobs being created, although the full impact of the hurricanes can’t be known with certainty. Job growth was depressed in October due to the hurricanes but the revisions to August and September weren’t weather related. August was revised down by 81...