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What Does Macro Tides Have To Offer You?

And how can you determine if Macro Tides will fit for your needs? It's easy, read my overview summary.

You'll be able to judge my analysis on monetary policy, inflation outlook as inflation began to soar, and how the Dollar, Stock Market, Treasury yields, and Gold were expected to trade.

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Jim Knows How to Read The Markets

Jim Welsh has accumulated many accolades during his career, including for his prescient analysis of both the 2007-2008 market crash and the 2009 bullish reversal. Very few were able to accomplish this. Read Jim's free report covering his thoughts from those years to get a better sense of his process:

Read Jim's Free Fundamental Recap Report

After the 2008 and 2009 crash I looked for sources who had recommended getting out of the market in 2007 and 2008 but who had then turned bullish in February or March of 2009. While there were lots of people warning of impending doom in 2007 and 2008, they were still warning of impending doom in 2009 and 2010. And while many were bullish in the Spring of 2009, they were bullish all through the crash as well. After my extensive research (I spent well over 150 hours retrieving and reading available publications) I found only three who met my criteria for roughly “getting it right”: Jeffrey Gundlach, Ned Davis, and Jim Welsh. Jim does a great job of blending fundamental and technical analysis and communicating in a way I can understand. He is able to read the Fed minutes and identify gaps between what the Fed is saying and how it is being interpreted by the market.

- Dave B., Independent advisor Large National Wealth Management Firm

Jim Welsh has published a monthly investment letter since 1985 that focuses on Federal Reserve monetary policy, the economy, and the financial markets. He has managed a mutual fund, worked for major wire-houses, and has been widely published in financial media. Jim was Forward Funds' ($5.5 billion) Macro Tactical strategist for a number of years, and provides high quality economic and technical market analysis for advisors and investors as a guide to portfolio allocation and tactical portfolio changes.

Welsh's Macro Tides models identify trend changes in the domestic & international equity markets, fixed income, currency (USD & Euro) and Gold markets. The Macro Tides models place a heavy focus on Monetary Policy, traditional Economic Indicators, including Welsh's proprietary Major Trend Indicator, and selected Sentiment Indicators to create trade recommendations.

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Inflection Points

By the end of July a number of markets were at inflection points. The Dollar was on the cusp of a big rally. Treasury yields were trending higher. The S&P 500 peaked on July 27 and then declined by more than 7%. Gold was in a down trend.

In the July 24 Weekly Technical Review I told subscribers to expect:

  1. A -5% to -7% decline in the S&P 500
  2. A rally of at least 4% in the Dollar
  3. The trend in Treasury yields was up
  4. Gold was expected to drop to $1822

Read the July 24, 2023
Weekly Technical Review

Jim Welsh in the Media

Listen to Jim share his thoughts with podcasts, publications, and media outlets. Gain a better understanding of how he integrates his fundamental and technical analysis, broad experience, and knowledge of the markets into developing valuable Macro Tides newsletters that can provide insight to your decision making.

Watch Jim's Interviews

Technical Review

Bracing for a Slowdown

Technical Review

Persistent Uncertainty

In the last two years investors weren’t presented with many reasons to sell and were conditioned to buy every dip no matter how shallow. Along the way there were a few bumps – regional bank upset in March 2023, correction in the summer of 2023, and the Japanese Yen shakeout in August 2024....

Technical Review

Economic Growth Scare

There have been a number of economic reports in the last two weeks that have been weaker than expected creating a growth scare. Retail Sales in January fell -0.9% which was much weaker than the forecast dip of -0.2%. This raised concerns that consumer spending was starting to falter. The S&...

Global Economic Report

Grand Global Economic Reordering

A February 19 poll by Gallup asked Americans whether they approved what President Trump had done so far after returning to the White House on January 20. The poll found an enormous split between the political parties with 93% of Republicans approving...

Technical Review

Every Day a Whirlwind

Every day brings a new Executive Order and actions taken by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to fire government workers or shutter entire departments. Whether some of the decisions by DOGE are legal will be decided by the courts. The threat of tariffs will likely become reality on...

Technical Review

Prospects of a Tariff War

The title of the January 21 Weekly Technical Review was “ President Trump Won’t Be a Bull in a China Shop .” I’ve changed my mind as noted in last week’s WTR. “ President Trump may be more serious about increasing the revenue from tariffs than Wall Street realizes. Wall Street thinks President...

Technical Review

Nothing to Worry About! What?

As promised President Trump levied tariffs on Canada and Mexico on February 1. The stock market started getting concerned on January 31 and the S&P 500 fell from 6121 to a low just after the market opened on February 3 of 5924. On Monday February 3 Canada and Mexico offered concessions that...

Technical Review

Tit for Tat Tariffs

I’m not a fan of using tariffs as a blunt instrument or protectionism.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that free trade after 1950 cumulatively boosted the U.S. economy by $2.6 trillion, or $19,500 a household. A 2021 study by Oxford Economics and the U.S.-...

Global Economic Report

FOMC on Hold

Niels Bohr won the Nobel Prize for Physics in 1922 for his work on the atom. After Sweden was taken over by the Nazi’s, Niels Bohr emigrated to the US in 1939. He was a member of the Manhattan Project in 1942 that eventually developed the first atomic bomb. Despite his...

DeepSeek Deep Sixes Nvidia

The Chinese firm DeepSeek just upset the computing and investing world that relies on a smarter approach, rather than using more expensive computing power. Currently, Artificial Intelligence relies heavily on Graphic Processing Units (GPU’s) that cost $40,000 each and need massive data centers...

Technical Review

President Trump Won’t Be a Bull in a China Shop

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) offered a glint of positive news and the markets rejoiced. The Annual increase in the Core CPI dipped from 3.3% to 3.2% which was enough to alleviate the building concern the FOMC might actually increase the Funds rate in 2025, rather than lower it as noted last...

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